Petrol and diesel prices, which have been on a freeze for the past four months in view of assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh, need to be increased by over Rs 12 per litre by March 16 for fuel retailers to break even. International crude oil prices shot above $120 a barrel for the first time in nine years on Thursday before retreating a little to $111 on Friday, but the gulf between cost and retail rates has only widened. With international oil prices - on which domestic fuel retails are directly benchmarked - spiking in the last two months, state-owned fuel retailers "need a massive price hike of Rs 12.1 per litre on or before March 16, 2022, just to breakeven and a price hike of Rs 15.1 is required" after including margins for oil firms, ICICI Securities said in a report.
Margins for the oil refining and retailing sector have moved off their peaks, and the average integrated margins (refining plus marketing) for oil marketing companies (OMCs) have normalised. The ascent in crude oil prices, combined with static retail prices, has depressed marketing margins for diesel and petrol. However, the fall in marketing margins has been offset by increased gross refining margins (GRMs).
Retail inflation slipped to seven-month low of 3.61 per cent in February mainly due to easing prices of vegetables, eggs, and other protein-rich items, creating space for the RBI to go for another cut in interest rate next month.
The rupee depreciated 7 paise to an all-time low of 80.05 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday tracking the strength of the American currency and firm crude oil prices. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 80 against the American dollar, then lost ground to quote at 80.05, registering a fall of 7 paise from the last close. In initial trade, the local unit also touched 79.90 against the American currency.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to a nearly six-year low of 3.34 per cent in March due to a decline in prices of vegetables and protein-rich items. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was 3.61 per cent in February and 4.85 per cent in March last year.
The NSE Nifty after shuttling between 10,397.60 and 10,279.35 points, ended 47 points, or 0.45 per cent lower at 10,301.05.
Jet fuel prices on Wednesday were hiked by over 18 per cent -- the steepest ever increase -- to all-time high levels after international oil price surged to a multi-year high.
Petrol and diesel prices are likely to be cut by close to Re 1 per litre this weekend on sliding global oil rates.
Oil marketing cos rightly passed on the burden to buyers.
Equity benchmarks declined on Tuesday after a three-day rally, with the Sensex falling 359.33 points amid selling in index majors HDFC, Reliance Industries and Infosys. Investors were cautious ahead of release of GDP data, while a jump in crude oil prices also weighed on market sentiment, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex went lower by 359.33 points or 0.64 per cent to settle at 55,566.41.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Bharti Airtel, Power Grid, Bajaj Finance, Nestle, Mahindra & Mahindra, Reliance Industries, Asian Paints, IndusInd Bank, Hindustan Unilever and HDFC Bank were the biggest gainers. Bajaj Finance climbed nearly 2 per cent after the company reported an 18 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit to Rs 4,308 crore for the December quarter.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected retail inflation to ease to 5.3 per cent in next fiscal from 6.5 per cent this year on assumptions of lower imported inflation, even though core inflation remains sticky. The RBI's inflation outlook for current fiscal has improved from 6.8 per cent projected earlier, to 6.5 per cent, on the back of steeper than expected decline in vegetable prices and Indian basket of crude at $95 a barrel. "Looking ahead, while inflation is expected to moderate in 2023-24, it is likely to rule above the 4 per cent target.
Sri Lanka stays with you not just in memory, but gently reminds you what a society can achieve when heart and heritage guide the way.
The US Fed interest rate decision, global trends, tariff-related developments and trading activity of foreign investors will drive the equity market movement this week, analysts said. Among macroeconomic data announcement, WPI inflation for February is scheduled to be announced on Monday.
While prices sustaining lower levels is crucial, Govt actions are also a key monitorable given the forthcoming elections in 2024.
Over the previous eight sessions, Brent had lost about $7 a barrel, almost 20 per cent
CARE Ratings, in a report, said it foresees an increase in the retail prices of petrol and diesel in the coming few days, depending on how the oil markets react in the reduction in supply from the cartel.
After selling dollars for the past few months, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take a hands-off approach before its annual account closing by not trying to prop up the rupee as geopolitical tensions show signs of stabilising with global crude oil prices easing from its $140 peak. The central bank was a net buyer of dollars between April and September, and then turned a net seller in the following months, the data released by the RBI showed. The RBI continued to be a net buyer of $36.6 billion in this fiscal year - between April and January. In 2020-21, it purchased $68 billion on a net basis.
Analysts are enthused by BPCL's upstream foray and have re-rated the stock in the past couple of years.
Investors' wealth fell by Rs 2.89 lakh crore in two days of market fall, with the BSE Sensex tumbling 796 points on Wednesday, amid weak global market trends ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Fresh foreign fund outflows and caution ahead of a host of interest rate decisions from global central banks also added to the overall bearish trend. Besides, the US Fed meeting, the BoE (Bank of England) and the BoJ (Bank of Japan) are also scheduled to meet this week.
On a five-day rolling basis, FPI selling is the highest in 24 years.
'We suggest an equity strategy of 5% to 10% exposure to cash, 5% to Gold ETF, close to 50% to Sensex/Nifty/large mid-cap stocks.'
India's fuel sales fell in the first half of April as a record rise in prices in a short 16-day period dented demand, preliminary industry data showed on Saturday. Petrol sales fell almost 10 per cent in the first half of April when compared with the same period in the preceding month, while diesel demand slid 15.6 per cent. Even cooking gas LPG, which had consistently shown growth even during the pandemic period, saw a 1.7 per cent month-on-month fall in consumption during April 1-15.
The rupee depreciated by 9 paise and settled at its all-time low level of 83.13 against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a surge in crude oil prices and strong American currency. Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated as the US dollar rose to the highest levels in six months. Moreover, elevated crude oil prices also weighed on rupee.
Diesel likely to get cheaper in New Delhi
This is the second straight increase in ATF price this month. Rates were hiked by a record 56.5 per cent (Rs 12,126.75 per kl) on June 1. Simultaneously, petrol and diesel prices were hiked for the 10th day in a row.
Petrol and diesel price hikes are likely to resume after state elections get over next week to bridge the Rs 9 a litre gap created by international oil prices soaring past $100 a barrel. International crude oil prices shot above $110 a barrel for the first time since mid-2014 on fears that oil and gas supplies from energy giant Russia could be disrupted, either by the conflict in Ukraine or retaliatory western sanctions. The basket of crude oil India buys rose above $102 per barrel on March 1, the highest since August 2014, according to information from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the oil ministry.
Reliance Industries Ltd on Monday reported a 5 per cent fall in the net profit for the July-September quarter, as weak oil refining and petrochemical business hurt operational performance.
Traders said sentiments remained weak due to fall in demand from jewellers and retailers amidst gold retreating in global markets.
Petrol and diesel prices were on Tuesday hiked by 80 paise a litre while domestic cooking gas prices were increased by Rs 50 per cylinder, ending an over four-and-half month election-related hiatus in rate revision, sources said. Petrol in Delhi will now cost Rs 96.21 per litre as against Rs 95.41 previously while diesel has gone up from Rs 86.67 per litre to Rs 87.47. Simultaneously, the price of a non-subsidised LPG cylinder has been increased to Rs 949.50 for each 14.2-kg bottle in the national capital.
The Union government has collected Rs 94,181 crore through levy of excise duty on petrol and diesel in the first three months of the current fiscal on the back of a record tax on fuel that yielded 88 per cent higher revenue the previous financial year, the Lok Sabha was informed on Monday. Excise duty on petrol was hiked from Rs 19.98 per litre to Rs 32.9 last year to recoup gain arising from international oil prices plunging to multi-year low as pandemic gulped demand. The same on diesel was raised to Rs 31.8 from Rs 15.83 a litre, according to a written reply by Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas Rameswar Teli in the Lok Sabha. This led to excise collections on petrol and diesel jumping to Rs 3.35 lakh crore in 2020-21 (April 2020 to March 2021), from Rs 1.78 lakh crore a year back, he said.
Falling oil rates have made rigs available for hire at a cheaper rate. Oil and Natural Gas Corporation planned to foray into building rigs in June 2008 owing to its short supply as crude oil prices zoomed northwards.
Dealers expect prices to fall further, owing to an impending rate hike in the US
The Iran-Israel conflict has further increased global economic uncertainties, impacting world trade, including India's exports, as it is expected to drive up both air and sea freight rates, exporters say. They said that India's exports to Europe and counters like Russia may get impacted due to this war.
International oil prices surged close to $100 a barrel on Tuesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine, but petrol and diesel prices in India continue to be on freeze and are expected to rise once assembly elections in states like Uttar Pradesh end. Amid fears of supplies being disrupted because of Russian aggression, the price of futures contract for Brent crude oil with April delivery on London's ICE rose by 4.18 per cent to $99.38 per barrel on Tuesday morning, before paring some gains to settle just above $98. The last time Brent exceeded $99 per barrel was in September 2014. Russia makes up for a third of Europe's natural gas and about 10 per cent of global oil production.
The Indian economy will grow at around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, notwithstanding high crude oil prices and increased uncertainty due climate changes, NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani said on Thursday. Virmani also asserted that the gross household savings ratio in India has consistently gone up. In an interview with PTI, he said: "My growth projection (of India's GDP growth) is 6.5 per cent plus minus 0.5 per cent... because my experience is that the fluctuations in global GDP more or less has balanced out for us, assuming normal changes."
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be the major driving factors for the equity markets this week, according to analysts.
Indian imports of Russian crude oil may stabilise or even decline in 2024 from record 2023 levels amid shrinking discounts, lower output, and a rebound in West Asian supplies, according to the ship-tracking data and industry executives. This may impact the billions of dollars in annual savings that India made last year. Imports of Russian oil jumped by a record 140 per cent in calendar 2023 to 1.79 million barrels a day (b/d) from 740,400 b/d in 2022, when Russia marched into Ukraine in February, and from just 102,000 b/d in 2021, according to the data from Paris-based market intelligence agency Kpler.
In nine hikes, petrol price has gone up by Rs 5 per litre and diesel by Rs 4.87 a litre.
Upstream firms have a tremendous financial pressure due to selling crude at subsidised rates to oil marketing firms.
